A tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico is on a course that approaches Southeast Texas on Friday and brings a risk of urban flooding.

The wet pattern gives way to drying conditions by Sunday as high pressure rebuilds. Sun returns, rain chances taper off, and the stage is set for a significant heat rise. Highs climb into the upper 90s, with humidity bringing the heat index up to 105.

With tropical moisture increasing Friday, expect more widespread showers and storms to build in the next few days with the best chance for heavy rain along the SE Texas Gulf coast.

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The Weather Prediction Center has placed all of Southeast Texas under a level 1 of 4 risk, or at least a 5% chance, of flooding Friday and Saturday.

A low pressure storm system is likely to move into the north-central region of the Gulf over the next few days. Forecasters expect the system, which could develop into a tropical cyclone, to produce scattered storms and thunderstorms.

Thursday in Houston will be hot again, but a plume of tropical moisture will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning late Thursday along the coast and to our east. That rain will spread farther inland on Friday,