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> asked claude opus 4.7 to solve my polymarket strategy> ran monte carlo, ran kelly criterion, here's what it found> monte carlo: 10,000 simulations of betting every outcome> 74% of runs → you're down> the distribution doesn't lie> kelly criterion: f* = (bp - q) / b> no edge → kelly says bet 0> covering all outcomes → kelly outputs a negative fraction> the formula is telling you to short yourself> both models, same answer> don't spray, don't pray> kelly only goes positive when your p beats the m
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